House Prices Q3 2022

Q3 2022 Daft House Price Index by Author Ronan Lyons

In this quarters house price index report, Ronan Lyons examines,

What would a healthy housing system look like?

This is quite the question for anyone who has had to endure the vicissitudes of Ireland’s housing system over the last few years and indeed the generation. As I’ve written in past reports, ultimately the challenge facing the Irish housing system is that, once Ireland found a successful business model once more in the 1990s ‐ after 150 years without one ‐ the country was unable to accommodate the growth unleashed in the labour market.

With post-Celtic Tiger net migration at an all-time high in the year to 2022, this growth shows no signs of abating. Indeed, preliminary Census 2022 figures indicate that underlying housing need in Ireland over the coming three decades is likely to be in the range of 42,000 to 62,000 homes, not far off twice the underlying level of 28,000 new homes per year that underpins Housing For All, launched as recently as 2020.

This year, Ireland may see 25,000 new homes completed ‐ and as things stand, the most optimistic forecasts for next year are that this total would be matched. This is in part because construction costs have increased ‐ by almost 15% in a single year, according to the SCSI’s latest figures ‐ and in part because, since 2018, Ireland’s planning system has effectively become embedded in Ireland’s legal system, slowing down the conversion rate from permissions granted to building started.

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